Third Quarter Market Update
You’ve heard the Wall Street line, “buy the rumor, sell the news.” Mortgage rates followed that playbook in September: they started near 6.53%, dipped to 6.13%, then rose to 6.40% after the Fed cut. Why: mortgages follow the bond market, not the Fed’s short rate. Traders price the path of inflation, growth, and policy months ahead.
Key takeaways
- Before the cut: markets priced easier policy, long yields fell, lenders passed through lower mortgage rates.
- After the cut: new data and guidance pushed long yields up, so mortgage rates bounced.
- Inventory peaked in March, not October. More withdrawals than price cuts as sellers wait for their number.
- Why sellers can wait: many hold 2–3% loans and ~40% of owners are mortgage-free, so there’s little pressure to sell.
“Time your life, not the market.” — Dewayne Carpenter
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